Inflation

Tortilla with beans, cotija cheese and egg
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Canadian Trends 2023: Technomic

Canadian Trends 2023: Technomic

by David Klemt

Tortilla with beans, cotija cheese and egg

Restaurant, bar, and hotel operators will find this year’s data-driven trend predictions from Technomic for 2023 insightful.

Interestingly but perhaps not surprisingly, some operators may be looking beyond North America for inspiration.

Per Technomic, Central and South American cuisines could influence menus in Canada this year. Other food trends that might take hold are “retro” health items, and all manner of pickled foods.

Of course, not every Canadian trend prediction involves F&B. According to Technomic, tech and the guest experience will play important roles.

To review last year’s Technomic predictions, click here. Now, let’s jump into Technomic’s 2023 predictions.

Guest Experience

Certainly, the guest experience should always be top of mind for operators, their leadership teams, and their staff.

In this instance, Technomic isn’t suggesting that the guest experience in general will be a trend. Obviously, with as important as it is to the success of any business, it’s a cornerstone.

Rather, Technomic predicts that guests will continue to feel the need to rein in their spending due to ricing costs and prices. However, the foodservice research firm also believes there’s still heavy desire for social interaction.

So, both those financial and social influences translate to the following: overdelivery.

Operators and their teams must ensure they position their brands well; make guests feel special every visit; and really dial in the guest experience. Specifically, Technomic suggests focusing on younger generations and menus with at least a couple specialty items that aren’t easy for a guest to replicate at home.

In other words, do whatever it takes to entice guests with memorable experience and quality menu items, and keep them coming back for more.

Technology

Multiple industry sources believe that 2023 is the Year of Tech for the hospitality industry. In particular, some sources believe that POS systems will receive significant attention from operators looking to upgrade.

Compellingly, Technomic sees the situation a bit differently. In particular, they’re suggesting that QR code menus may find themselves on the sidelines. Traditional menu, according to Technomic, will make their comeback this year.

Also making a (possible) resurgence? Per Technomic, in-person ordering for carryout and in-person dining.

As far as tech innovations that Technomic expects to take off this year, they see the following as standouts:

  • loyalty programs;
  • enhanced/upgraded cooking equipment;
  • automated inventory software/platforms; and
  • digital menu boards for back of house.

Culinary

As hinted at above, Central and South American cuisines are expected to take off in Canada, per Technomic.

The research firm provides specific—and delicious—examples:

  • Honduras: Baleadas tacos
  • Dominican Republic: Wasakaka sauce
  • El Salvador: Curtido slaw or relish
  • Peru: Aji amarillo and rocoto peppers
  • Bolivia: Saltenas, similar to empanadas

Another culinary trend Technomic predicts will perform well in Canada? Pickled everything.

Okay, maybe not everything. However, Technomic expects “pickling, fermenting, dehydrating and freeze-drying” to “increasingly pop up on menus.” The firm expects that operators will offer a wide range of “unusually pickled items outside of the typical veggies, including proteins and seeds.”

So, if you’re an operator reading this, it may be time to motivate your back-of-house staff to get creative with their pickling ideas.

Finally, pandemic-driven, health-based trend foods like turmeric and ginger may start to fade in popularity. Instead, predicts Technomic, items with “classic” health descriptors such as “natural,” “real,” “free,” “reduced,” and “lower” will get attention from guests looking to eat and drink healthier.

For your own copy of this Technomic report in its entirety, click here.

Image: Roman Odintsov on Pexels

People toasting with Dunkin' Donuts cups
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Restaurant Rewards Making Headlines

Restaurant Rewards Making Headlines

by David Klemt

People toasting with Dunkin' Donuts cups

Loyalty programs are making waves and grabbing headlines but not all of the news is good, according to consumers.

Dunkin’, Chipotle, Taco Bell, and Starbucks are among the restaurants whose programs are receiving attention.

Now, there are still those who cling to the idea that all publicity is good. Personally, I’ve found that idiom to be outdated. In fact, I’ve believed that phrase to be false for several years.

Instead, when it comes to publicity, I find this quote from Warren Buffet to be far more accurate: “It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.”

It’s important for operators—for all entrepreneurs, really—to protect their brand’s reputation. At the end of the day, long-term success depends on the reputation one builds. And make no mistake, that reputation is made—or broken—every day, with every interaction.

So, what does all of that have to do with loyalty or rewards programs? It’s simple—such programs aren’t just about revenue. A loyalty program, when executed well, is a branding tool that boosts engagement, recognition, and perception.

When a loyalty or rewards program is executed poorly it doesn’t just mean low membership numbers. A brand’s reputation can take a severe hit if loyal consumers cry foul.

Let’s take a look at some brands that have made headlines the past couple of weeks.

Taco Bell

This rewards program, the Taco Lover’s Pass, is a bit of an anomaly in the loyalty space.

It was first launched in Arizona in September 2021. Depending on the location, the pass cost either $5 or $10. In exchange, people could get a free taco a day for 30 consecutive days, and they could choose from seven tacos.

Back in January of this year, Taco Bell brought back the Taco Lover’s Pass. This time, the program was available throughout the US, and it cost $10. Again, those who snagged a pass through the chain’s app could get a free taco each day for 30 consecutive days.

And just two weeks ago, Taco Bell made the Taco Lover’s Pass available again. This time, people had one day to download the app (if they didn’t have it already) and grab the pass.

Time will tell if Taco Bell will eventually make this wildly popular program permanent. For now, this occasional reward program seems to be serving the chain just fine, and their loyal guests don’t seem to be angry that the Taco Lover’s Pass, thus far, appears fleetingly.

Starbucks

Another interesting approach to loyalty sees Starbucks partnering with Delta Airlines.

As of yesterday, members of Starbucks Rewards and Delta SkyMiles can link the programs together. Members of the former can receive double stars on days on which they’re flying Delta (at participating locations). For the latter, members will earn one mile for every dollar they spend at Starbucks.

Essentially, linking the two accounts ensures that members earn points across both programs for a single purchase. Not a bad move—it should be an effective way to boost loyalty for both companies.

Chipotle

Ah, Chipotle. It’s safe to say this brand has experienced plenty of ups and downs over the past several years.

But credit where credit is due: It seems that the chain manages to come back from each scandal or mistake. And that’s what’s so frustrating—they wouldn’t have to correct missteps if they took care to avoid making them in the first place.

So, why are people upset with Chipotle now? The backlash concerns the restaurant chain’s Chipotle Rewards program.

When someone signs up the program, they can redeem a nice perk immediately: free chips and guacamole. On their birthday, they have access to another perk. In general, the biggest benefit is earning up to 10 points for every dollar spent at Chipotle.

The points a member earns are redeemable in multiple ways: free menu items, a charitable donation, or merchandise. Seems very straightforward, right?

Well, Chipotle updated their rewards program, and it’s not an upgrade. In response to inflation, Chipotle has increased prices, just as innumerable restaurants have also done.

However, the chain updated Chipotle Rewards so that members must spend more to get their free entree reward. Members must now spend an additional $20-plus to get their reward, and they’re understandably unhappy.

It should go without saying but a rewards program is for increasing visits or orders per member. With people declaring they’re “done” with Chipotle, the brand’s update is driving down visits and potentially harming their reputation.

Dunkin’

Things in the reward and reputation space may be worse for Dunkin’ than any other restaurant brand at the moment.

The chain first launched its DD Perks loyalty program eight years ago. Last week, Dunkin’ “reworked” loyalty, launching Dunkin’ Rewards.

Unfortunately, according to several reports, social media, and Reddit, the new program deflated the value of members’ points. From what I’ve seen members must now earn more than double the points they needed to prior to the Dunkin’ Rewards rollout for a gratis beverage.

Oh, and free drinks on a member’s birthday? The new program eliminates that perk. As is often the case on social media, some people are seething.

However, a statement from Scott Murphy, the president of Dunkin’, suggests that people are perhaps misunderstanding or misrepresenting the new program.

“Dunkin’ loyalists told us they wanted the ability to redeem for more than just beverages and we listened,” Murphy said to The Washington Post. “They also wanted to bundle points for larger orders, which we accomplished. And they told us they wanted to be recognized for their loyalty, which they can now achieve through Boosted Status and earn points even faster when they come to Dunkin’ more often.”

In short, Dunkin’ Rewards is built to allow members to redeem points for a wider array of menu items, including meals. For now, however, it seems the knee-jerk reaction is that many members feel the points they earned prior to the new program’s launch are devalued. And they’re furious, with some calling for a boycott.

Obviously, a boycott is the opposite effect one wants from their loyalty program.

Loyalty is a Tightrope Act

If there’s one takeaway here, it’s that rewarding guests for their loyalty isn’t as simple as offering points for dollars.

Perhaps it should be simple, and maybe it was was that simple a while back. But now, operators must be far more cautious when designing a loyalty program.

I’ll continue to dislike offering discounts for most brands. In my opinion, once a guest becomes accustomed to receiving a discount regularly, that discount becomes the standard price. That’s not good for most operators.

It may seem counterintuitive, but I’d rather see loyalty program members receive a free item than discounts. At least they’ve paid full price to earn that perk.

Another issue, however, is making changes to loyalty programs. Operators are facing incredible strain when it comes to costs, and this industry’s margins are already razor thin. It appears that some brands aren’t just increasing costs, they’re also increasing the points it takes to earn loyalty perks.

That may make sense on paper but program members are showing that they don’t take kindly to this type of change.

Slow Down

Look at loyalty programs through the eyes of consumers, not just the eyes of an accountant.

When the costs of living rise and a person’s dollars don’t go as far as they did before, they tend to cut back or eliminate expenditures. Commonly, restaurant visits are among the first things suffer. Loyalty programs can offer guests a way to stretch their dollars—there’s an attractive perk around the bend that allows them to justify continual visits.

If a brand devalues a loyalty program member’s points or requires them to spend more to earn the same benefits, why would they be happy? Why would they remain loyalty? As far as they’re concerned, their incentive to do so no longer exists. The perceived value is no longer there.

Before an operator launches or “revisits” a loyalty program, they need to slow down and analyze it from every angle. These programs are a delicate balancing act, demanding they make sense for both the bottom line and the guests.

If an operator hasn’t yet implemented a loyalty program, perhaps they should hold off until costs become more reasonable. With inflation affecting costs and therefore prices, the wisest move may be to take the time to really dial in the program, prepare the necessary assets, and implement when it won’t impact revenue negatively.

On the flip side, operators considering making significant changes to their loyalty programs need to take the time to strategize before implementation. A misstep, even if it’s a misunderstanding from the member side, can do irreparable harm.

Image: Isabella and Zsa Fischer on Unsplash

Canadian dollar bills
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Operators & Guests Respond to Rising Costs

Operators & Guests Respond to Rising Costs

by David Klemt

Canadian dollar bills

Everything is more expensive these days and both operators and consumers have their own ideas for addressing rising costs.

To gather and share insight into people’s mindsets, Restaurants Canada conducted and commissioned two surveys.

For one, the industry research and advocacy organization surveyed operators. The focus was on how much operators anticipated increasing their prices.

On the other side, Restaurants Canada commissioned Angus Reid for a survey focusing on consumers. This survey revealed potential traffic slowdowns and perceived value for money.

For your own copy of Restaurant Canada’s 2022 Foodservice Facts report, click here.

QSR vs. FSR: Consumers

As an operator, converting first-time visitors into repeat guests is paramount. Equally as important: increasing visit frequency per guest.

Of course, an immediate byproduct of rising costs is consumers pulling back and reevaluating their spending. Oftentimes, dining out is one of the first costs consumers slash in order to save money.

Therefore, operators always face the risk of reduced traffic and even losing some guests permanently when they raise prices. However, this is often a necessary risk to take to combat rising costs.

So, how dire is the situation among Canadian consumers currently? Or at least, how did they feel in Q2 of this year? Angus Reid conducted a survey of consumers to find out, and the results can be found within the 2022 Foodservice Facts report.

First, let’s look at visit frequency for QSRs and FSRs. Before we begin, 12 percent of survey respondents answer that they “don’t know for sure” if rising prices will affect their visit frequency for either QSRs or FSRs. Not helpful.

For QSRs, 19 percent of respondents say an increase in prices won’t impact their visit frequency. Thirty-six percent anticipate visiting “a little less often,” while 32 percent will visit much frequently.

As for FSRs, 16 percent of survey respondents won’t change their visit frequency. However, 37 percent anticipate visiting FSRs much less often. Nearly as many, 36 percent, will visit a bit less frequently.

Interestingly, however, is perceived value. More FSR guests believe they receive excellent or good value for their money than they do from QSRs. More QSR guests believe they receive fair, poor, or very poor value for their money.

Overall, though, 90 percent of Canadian consumers feel positive toward the value they receive from QSRs and FSRs.

QSR vs. FSR: Operators

Clearly, it’s good news that the vast majority of Canadians believe they receive good value for their money when dining out.

Nobody enjoys paying more but it appears that both QSRs and FSRs in Canada can increase their prices. At least, they can do so for now while consumers are mostly understanding about inflation.

Restaurants Canada asked QSR and FSR operators a simple but revealing question for their 2022 Foodservice Facts report. The question? How much higher do operators expect to increase their prices by the end of Q4 of this year in comparison to last year?

The majority of operators in both categories anticipate they’ll increase menu prices by more than seven percent. Twenty-seven percent of QSR operators have that expectation. That number rises to 35 percent for FSR operators.

Twenty-two percent of QSR operators anticipate raising prices five to seven percent before the end of 2022. In comparison, 32 percent of FSR operators expect to raise prices in the same range.

At the moment, Canadian consumers appear to be willing to endure these increases. However, it’s likely they expect prices to drop back to “normal” (pre-pandemic prices) or close to it sometime in 2023. That is, unless Canada slides into recession.

Image: PiggyBank on Unsplash

Guests sitting at the bar inside a restaurant
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Datassential’s State of the Operator 2022

Datassential’s State of the Operator 2022

by David Klemt

Guests sitting at the bar inside a restaurant

The latest addition to the Datassential FoodBytes research series shares insights into the top three challenges most—if not all—operators are facing.

Now, some of what the report reveals paints a bleak picture. Inflation, the labor shortage, and supply chain issues persist even past the midway point of 2022.

However, operators are a tenacious and innovative group of business owners. Of course, that tenacity seems to manifest in people thinking this industry can weather any storm. That perception can come at operators’ detriment. Exhibit A: The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 not including replenishing of the RRF. But, I digress.

“The State of the Operator & the Road Ahead,” which you can download here, is helpful and informative. As you may be aware, we’re fans of Datassential and their FoodBytes reports. In fact, you can find our synopses of FoodBytes reports here and here.

Below are some key points that operators should be aware for consideration. I strongly urge you to download this free report today.

Operator Outlook

First, let’s take a look at traffic. As Datassential points out, some hospitality business segments are performing better than others currently.

In large part, this is due to two factors: People working from home, and people returning to travel. So, operators who rely heavily on commuters and in-person workers are struggling. On the other hand, operators inside or around hotels are, per Datassential, performing the strongest at the moment.

Interestingly, though, nearly half of operators (47 percent) are seeing an increase in traffic in comparison to pre-Covid levels. Fourteen percent of operators are reporting no change in traffic. Unfortunately, traffic is lower for 39 percent of operators.

Next, sales. In comparison to pre-Covid times, more than half (51 percent) of operators report an increase. Again, 14 percent of operators are experiencing no change. But 35 percent of operators are experiencing a decrease in sales.

Finally, profit margins. Half of operators may be seeing increases in traffic in sales, but profit margins are taking a hit. On average, the industry’s profit margin is now hovering at 13 percent. That’s an eight-percent drop in comparison to pre-Covid levels.

Segment Performance

The findings regarding profit margins are likely to be the most alarming to operators. Historically, our industry has operated on razor-thin margins for decades. Dropping from an average of 21 percent to 13 is concerning.

However, context is important. The segments seeing the lowest profit margins in 2022 are: Business & Industry (B&I), Healthcare, and Colleges & Universities (C&U). Again, remote work (and learning) are largely responsible for those particular segments watching their profit margins tumble.

The strongest performers are: Quick-Service Restaurants (QSR) at 17 percent; Fast Casual at 15 percent); and Midscale, Casual Dining, and Fine Dining, each at 13 percent. Lodging is just below the current average at 12 percent.

Operator Adaptation

Inflation, rising food costs, supply chain issues, labor shortages… Operators are finding ways to cope, and in some situation, thrive.

Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of operators are increasing menu prices. In the past 12 months, 77 percent of operators have raised menu prices at least once.

These increases range from one percent a staggering 30 percent. However, the majority have kept these increases to one to ten percent. Most (31 percent) have implemented increases of no more than five percent. Just one percent of operators boosted prices between 25 to 30 percent.

Of course, raising prices isn’t the only strategy operators have at their disposal. Forty percent of operators are streamlining their menu, reducing the sizes of their menus. However, it’s wise for operators to review their menus at least every three months to eliminate poor performers.

Other strategies include focusing on value for guests (27 percent); utilizing LTOs and launching new menu items (26 percent); eliminating a specific daypart or portion of the menu (25 percent); and making portion sizes small, or “shrinkflation” (18 percent).

There’s much more revealed in Datassential’s latest FoodBytes report. Download your copy today.

Image: Luca Bravo on Unsplash

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