Omicron

United States Capitol Building beneath cloudy skies
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

NRA Sends Survey Results to Congress

NRA Sends Economic Survey Results to Congress

by David Klemt

United States Capitol Building beneath cloudy skies

On the heels of the IRC’s National Day of Action to Save Restaurants, the National Restaurant Association has sent a letter to Congress.

Sent by Sean Kennedy, executive vice president of the NRA, the letter urges Congress to finally replenish the RRF.

“After two years of closures, COVID-19 variants, worker shortages, and inflationary pressure,” reads the letter, in part, “a dangerous number of restaurants are at the end of the line.”

A Critical Moment

As I’ve written several times (exhaustively, some would say), the bill meant to replenish the Restaurant Revitalization Fund was first introduced in June 2021. We’re now a week away from February 2022.

In August of last year, a unanimous consent vote to provide $43 billion in emergency funding to the industry was shot down by Senator Rand Paul (R-KY). Build Back Better passed the House in November 2021. However, it didn’t include the Restaurant Revitalization Fund Replenishment Act.

As expressed by Sean Kennedy in an email sent yesterday, we’re at a critical juncture. Kennedy points to two dates when making his point: February 18 and March 1.

All government spending expires on the former date, and President Joe Biden delivers his State of the Union Address on the latter date. Kennedy suggests that the only large-scale spending bill of 2022 will be passed between those dates.

So, it’s probable that we have mere weeks to pressure Congress into replenishing the RRF.

The Numbers

Kennedy’s letter to Congress is addressed to Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), and Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

Citing the results of the NRA’s largest-ever economic survey, Kennedy urges action on the RRF from Congress. The NRA’s executive vice president estimates that replenishing the RRF will save over 1.6 million restaurant jobs.

Below are the survey results included in Kennedy’s letter to Congress:

  • 88 percent of restaurants saw decline in customer demand for indoor on-premises dining due to the omicron variant.
  • 76 percent of operators report that business conditions are worse now than they were just three months prior.
  • 74 percent of operators say their restaurant is less profitable now than it was prior to the pandemic.
  • Almost 50 percent of restaurant operators who didn’t receive RRF grants feel it’s unlikely that they’ll stay in business beyond the pandemic without a grant.
  • 94 percent of restaurant operators who applied for an RRF grant but did not receive funding said a future grant would enable them to retain or hire back employees.
  • 96 percent of recipients said the RRF grant made it more likely that they would be able to remain in business.
  • 92 percent of recipients said the RRF grant they received helped them pay expenses or debt that had accumulated since the beginning of the pandemic.
  • The initial round of grants, per the NRA, likely saved more than 900,000 restaurant jobs.

Now is not the time to relent—we need to keep up the pressure. If Kennedy and the NRA are correct, we have only weeks to receive the help our industry needs and deserves.

Image: Harold Mendoza on Unsplash

Movie theater sign that reads "This is just intermission" temporary closure message
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Soft Versus Stealth Closures

Soft Versus Stealth Closures

by David Klemt

Movie theater sign that reads "This is just intermission" temporary closure message

Restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues throughout North America are closing temporarily due to spikes in Covid-19 infections.

These closures are voluntary and out of an abundance of caution for staff, guest and community health and safety. While not in any way ideal, these voluntary closures are admirable.

Restaurants, bars, and other hospitality-focused businesses are cornerstones of their communities. Putting safety ahead of profits highlights dedication to service.

There are two types of temporary closures an operator can choose, soft and stealth or silent.

Soft Closure

Simply put, a soft closure is the counterpart to a mandated closure. No local, state or federal authority has forced the closure.

Instead, an operator decides it’s best for their staff and community for them to close their doors for a period of time. Currently, the timeframe I’m most often coming across spans Christmas to December 29 or 30.

So, what are the reasons operators are giving for soft closures? The following are the most common I’m encountering:

  • Rises in infections and hospitalizations in a given location.
  • Teams too small to provide service due to infections, mostly driven by Omicron currently.
  • A desire to protect teams from increased risk of infection.
  • Giving staff off from Christmas or Christmas Eve through December 29 or 30 to recharge for New Year’s Eve.

In Canada, some provinces are prohibiting normally lucrative NYE events. So, some operators are closing because it’s not worth attempting to operate as normal until restrictions expire.

Stealth Closure

The difference between a soft and stealth closure are subtle. However, it’s important to understand a stealth closure, and why many operators find them upsetting.

A stealth closure is essentially a type of soft closure. The main difference—which is causing a bit of an uproar—is that the operator doesn’t use their voice to tell the public why they’re closing.

Closing stealthily or silently doesn’t express to the public and lawmakers how dire the situation is for the industry, both locally and overall. Many operators find this unacceptable because the industry isn’t receiving the relief necessary to recover throughout 2022.

To some, a stealth closure lets state and federal legislators shrug off the fact that Covid-19 is once again decimating the industry. I can’t say that I disagree with this assessment.

Of course, operators are free to do as they wish. They must make the best decisions for their businesses, staff, and community.

However, an explanation of the factors that drove the decision sends a clear message that the industry needs relief. Coming together and pressuring lawmakers is the only way we’re going to get the help we need.

Image: Nick Bolton on Unsplash

Four medical face masks on a blue background
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Current Restaurant & Bar Restrictions: USA

Current Restaurant & Bar Restrictions: USA

by David Klemt

Four medical face masks on a blue background

According to reporting worldwide, the Omicron variant of Covid-19 is surging and accounting for the majority of new infections.

Scientists, medical professionals, and some lawmakers and politicians are expressing concern. This is due to Omicron apparently being much more transmissible in comparison to other variants.

So far, it appears the current administration isn’t suggesting lockdowns. The CDC isn’t recommending restaurants and bars close down.

And dozens of states are not—for now—imposing new restrictions on people and businesses. However, there are nearly 20 states that have restrictions in place for restaurants and bars currently.

Of course, this situation is fluid and subject to change on a whim. As of the date of publication for this article, this is the currents state of the USA.

No Restrictions

There are, so far, 31 states have no state-mandated restrictions in place:

  1. Alabama
  2. Alaska
  3. Arizona
  4. Arkansas
  5. Delaware
  6. Florida
  7. Georgia
  8. Idaho
  9. Indiana
  10. Iowa
  11. Kentucky
  12. Louisiana
  13. Maine
  14. Michigan
  15. Minnesota
  16. Mississippi
  17. Montana
  18. New Hampshire
  19. New Jersey
  20. North Dakota
  21. Oklahoma
  22. Pennsylvania (Note: Indoor diners must wear masks. Businesses can require proof of vaccination.)
  23. Rhode Island
  24. South Carolina
  25. South Dakota
  26. Tennessee
  27. Texas
  28. Utah
  29. Vermont
  30. West Virginia
  31. Wyoming

Your state may be on this list. If so, it’s still important to remain knowledgeable of current restrictions and guidelines in your area(s) of operation.

Restrictions

The following 19 states have restrictions in place. Most commonly, these are mask requirements for indoor diners.

  1. California: Indoor diners must show proof of vaccination in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Regardless of vaccine status, indoor diners must wear masks.
  2. Connecticut: Unvaccinated required to wear masks indoors.
  3. Colorado: All indoor diners must wear masks. In Boulder County, businesses can apply to receive an indoor mask exemption if they require proof of vaccination.
  4. Hawaii: All indoor diners must wear masks.
  5. Illinois: All indoor diners must wear masks.
  6. Kansas: Requirements vary by county for indoor dining, so check current local guidelines.
  7. Maryland: Requirements vary by county for indoor dining, so check current local guidelines.
  8. Massachusetts: In Boston, indoor diners must wear masks regardless of vaccination status.
  9. Missouri: Requirements vary by county for indoor dining, so check current local guidelines.
  10. Nebraska: Requirements vary by county for indoor dining, so check current local guidelines.
  11. Nevada: Requirements vary by county but for the most part, all indoor diners must wear masks.
  12. New Mexico: All indoor diners must wear masks.
  13. New York: Indoor diners must show proof of vaccination, and masks are required to dine indoors. Unvaccinated required to wear masks indoors.
  14. North Carolina: Requirements vary by county for indoor dining, so check current local guidelines.
  15. Ohio: Requirements vary by county for indoor dining, so check current local guidelines.
  16. Oregon: All indoor diners must wear masks. If physical distancing isn’t possible in outdoor areas, masks must be worn by outdoor guests as well.
  17. Virginia: All indoor diners must wear masks.
  18. Washington: All indoor diners must wear masks.
  19. Wisconsin: Requirements vary by county for indoor dining, so check current local guidelines.

So Far, No Lockdowns

Some restaurants and bars have closed temporarily. These decisions are fueled by myriad factors, including spikes in infections in their markets or staff testing positive for Covid. So far, many of these businesses plan to reopen a day or two before New Year’s Eve.

It may be difficult to be optimistic at the moment. However, more than 70 percent of Americans have received one dose of an approved vaccine. Over 60 percent have received two doses. And nearly 20 percent have received a booster.

While alarmed, reporting shows that scientists and medical professionals aren’t anticipating nationwide lockdowns.

Image: Tamanna Rumee on Unsplash

Wooden spoon loaded with salt
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

American Trends 2022: Technomic

American Trends 2022: Technomic

by David Klemt

Wooden spoon loaded with salt

Two weeks ago, I reviewed and shared Technomic’s “Canadian Trends: Looking Ahead to 2022” report, and now it’s America’s turn.

Not too surprisingly, the US and Canada are similar in terms of a few 2022 trend predictions.

And while the Omicron variant of Covid-19 is causing some restaurants and bars to close, there is some good news from Technomic.

Salt

First, a difference between America and Canada. As you may recall from my review of Canadian predictions, Technomic predicts butter will be even more important next year.

Interestingly, salt is the big prediction for the United States. The reasoning is similar: people are seeking out comfort in these difficult times.

Technomic’s “2022: The Year of the Climb” report states flat out that, “Salt is the new fat.”

The industry intelligence firm predicts that salt will be increasingly important in kitchens—and on tables—in 2022.

For example, Technomic expects operators to focus salt-cured fish and meats. Of course, that doesn’t just meet a predicted consumer demand. Cured foods can be preserved for longer, which is appealing to operators.

Seaweeds, salt blends, and salty sauces will be used in the kitchen. According to Technomic, some of those will replace (or accompany) traditional salt on tables.

Going further, Technomic predicts that salt will find its way into cocktails. This can be in the form of salty ingredients or salt water, a trend from a few years ago.

Creative Prep

Let’s stick with the kitchen a bit longer.

This is one of the strongest similarities shared by the US and Canada. Technomic predicts that operators will need to focus on cross-utilization and creativity.

As you’ve likely already figured out, this is because of supply chain issues. The more ways items can be used without introducing new SKUs, the easier things may be for operators.

Some examples of cross-utilization suggested by Technomic:

  • Roasting, grilling, and blistering items normally served raw.
  • Pickling ingredients.
  • Fermenting items.
  • Turning some items into jams.
  • Aging some ingredients.

Labor Challenges

Obviously, the labor shortage is felt throughout North America. Unfortunately, this is another similarity when comparing Technomic’s American and Canadian 2022 trend predictions.

KRG Hospitality has addressed the need for the industry to make significant changes several times this year. In particular, founder and president Doug Radkey published a book, Hacking the New Normal, calling for change to improve working conditions and the industry’s long-term survival.

Technomic is suggesting the same. The firm predicts the following for 2022:

  • Wage increases across the board.
  • Benefits (healthcare, emergency child care, 401(k), and more).
  • Virtual hiring events.
  • Referral and signing bonuses.

However, more needs to be done. The industry doesn’t simply need to revamp its image, it needs to:

  • address—and not dismiss—issues raised by current hospitality professionals;
  • solve the problems that led to so many hospitality workers quitting jobs and giving up on the industry;
  • implement real solutions for the problems the industry has faced and, frankly, nurtured for decades.

And that’s just the start. If we don’t face our industry’s challenges head-on, there won’t be much of an industry in the future.

The Battle for Comfort

Yes, comfort food will be important next year. Hence the entire section on salt above.

However, when I mention comfort in this section I’m referring to personal comfort levels.

You’ve likely been hearing from industry peers and seeing on social media that a number of bars are closing until December 29 or December 30. These temporary closures are due to spikes in positive Covid-19 cases, mostly driven by Omicron.

Many Americans, eager to return to a semblance of their pre-Covid lives, want to spend time in restaurants and bars. However, people need to balance their comfort levels with their desire for social experiences.

In response, Technomic predicts that operators will need to balance the on-premise and off-premise. In other words, omni-channel operators must dial in their offerings.

Per Technomic, operators have to figure out their mix: interactive in-person experiences, takeout, and delivery.

Good News

Technomic is making two 2022 predictions that should come as a relief to operators.

First, Q1 of 2022, per Technomic, “will reveal a particularly strong year-over-year performance” in comparison to 2021.

Overall, the firm projects a 10.4-percent sales increase for 2022 when compared to 2019 sales.

There is, however, a caveat. We’ll have to take rising menu prices into account when analyzing this year’s and next year’s sales levels.

For those wondering which category is predicted to perform the best, Technomic identifies limited-service restaurants will recover quickest.

In contrast, full-service will see slower recovery. Business, leisure, and indeed “bleisure” travel will have an impact on full-service traffic.

So, 2022 isn’t going to magically return to pre-pandemic “normal.” However, should Technomic’s conservative sales prediction prove accurate, recovery is on the menu.

Image: Jason Tuinstra on Unsplash

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