Team retention

US Restaurant Employment Creeping Toward February 2020 Levels

by David Klemt

Keep pushing. We have work to do to reach February 2020 employment levels.

After what appeared to be a strong September 2023, restaurants and bars saw a decline of 7,500 jobs in the month of October.

In fact, the strong numbers from September were notably weaker once revised. After revisions, eating and drinking businesses added 48,300 jobs, not the nearly 61,000 from preliminary reports.

Importantly, a correction in employment numbers for August 2023 has revealed further declines. Initially, reports stated that restaurants had added 14,400 jobs. Unfortunately, the corrected number showed that restaurants shed 9,300 positions.

However, context is important. Notably, the unemployment rate in the US has remained under four percent for nearly 24 months. As of the latest reporting by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment is at 3.9 percent.

Numbers by Restaurant Category

The data in this subsection comes from the National Restaurant Association. As the NRA notes, this information is based on data from September 2023.

These numbers should provide further context for restaurant and bar’s current situation. Some restaurant categories are struggling more than others to reach or surpass pre-pandemic levels of employment.

Below, employments numbers for September 2023 in comparison to February 2020.

Full-service: -214,000 jobs
Quick-service and Fast Casual: +128,000 jobs
Bars and Taverns: +50,000 jobs
Cafeterias and Buffets: -36,600 jobs
Catering and Mobile Food Service: +14,900
Snack and Non-alcohol Beverage Bars: +107,000 jobs
Foodservice Contractors: +15,100 jobs

As you can see, full-service restaurants are struggling the most to reach pre-pandemic employment numbers. However, QSRs and bars have surpassed that milestone.

By the Numbers

Below, the change in employment in each state and Washington, DC. The time period the data span runs from September 2019 to September 2023*.

Alabama: -5,700 (-3.4%)
Alaska: +100 (+0.4%)
Arizona: +18,200 (+7.6%)
Arkansas: +7,900 (+8.1%)
California: +32,700 (+2.2%)
Colorado: +9,100 (+3.8%)
Connecticut: -1,200 (-1.0%)
Delaware: +2,500 (+6.4%)
District of Columbia: -2,500 (-4.5%)
Florida: +35,200 (+4.4%)
Georgia: +21,800 (+5.5%)
Hawaii: -4,900 (-6.9%)
Idaho: +7,000 (+11.5%)
Illinois: -11,000 (-2.3%)
Indiana: +7,900 (+3.2%)
Iowa: -200 (-0.2%)
Kansas: +4,800 (+4.7%)
Kentucky: -400 (-0.2%)
Louisiana: -9,000 (-5.2%)
Maine: -4,000 (-7.9%)
Maryland: -16,700 (-8.0%)
Massachusetts: -15,600 (-5.6%)
Michigan: -21,400 (-6.3%)
Minnesota: -9,000 (-5.2%)
Mississippi: -1,700 (-1.7%)
Missouri: -3,500 (-1.5%)
Montana: +4,500 (+10.7%)
Nebraska: +600 (+0.8%)
Nevada: +22,300 (+16.7%)
New Hampshire: -1,500 (-2.9%)
New Jersey: +7,400 (+2.7%)
New Mexico: +3,100 (+4.2%)
New York: -10,000 (-1.4%)
North Carolina: +12,900 (+3.3%)
North Dakota: -100 (-0.3%)
Ohio: -6,300 (-1.4%)
Oklahoma: +3,600 (+2.5%)
Oregon: -2,000 (-1.2%)
Pennsylvania: -5,600 (-1.3%)
Rhode Island: -2,000 (-4.3%)
South Carolina: +1,000 (+0.5%)
South Dakota: +3,100 (+9.4%)
Tennessee: +8,000 (+3.0%)
Texas: +74,200 (+6.6%)
Utah: +12,900 (+12.0%)
Vermont: -1,000 (-4.7%)
Virginia: -100 (-0.0%)
Washington: +3,900 (+1.5%)
West Virginia: -2,600 (-4.6%)
Wisconsin: -8,100 (-3.8%)
Wyoming: -100 (-0.5%)

Ups and Downs

First, the less-positive news: restaurant employment is below pre-pandemic levels in more than half of the country. Including Washington, DC, 27 states are still lagging behind September 2019.

However, in some cases the change is negligible.

For example, Wyoming is down just 0.5 percent, and Virginia is down just 100 jobs or 0.00033 percent. Of the 27 states seeing declines, 20 are down less than five percent in comparison to September 2019.

Of course, it’s important to note that Hawaii, Michigan, and Massachusetts are down more than five percent.

So, to the good news. Two dozen states are enjoying restaurant and bar employment above September 2019 levels.

Four states are up more than ten percent. Nevada is leading the way, up 16.7 percent. Next is Utah, up 12 percent. Following in third is Idaho, up 11.5 percent.

Takeaways

Restaurant employment’s pre-pandemic peak was in February 2020. As of the most-current data, we’re down 14,000 jobs.

According to the most recent data, restaurants and bars employ 12.32 million people in the US. While we have yet to reach the 12.34 million that were employed in February 2020, we’re not far off. We still have reason to be positive about recovery.

The larger threat looming over operators is rising costs. Additionally, depending on the source, a recession is either a possible or current threat.

Of course, there’s still increasing demand from consumers to gather at restaurants and bars. So, again, there’s reason to remain positive.

This is all to say that numbers without deeper understanding and nuance only provide surface context. They can make us panic or breathe a sigh of relief, seemingly at the drop of a hat. We can either worry that we haven’t reached the pre-pandemic milestone, be positive that we’ll reach that number in the near future, or decide that perhaps that metric shouldn’t be the primary one by which we measure recovery.

In short, operators positioning themselves for long-term success understand their market, their teams, and their guests; focus on staff and guest retention; develop community engagement and support; and have strategic clarity.

*Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Restaurant Association

Image: Tim Mossholder on Unsplash

Raise the Bar: The 3 Ps of Hospitality

by David Klemt

No, one isn’t “pineapples.”

Nightlife, bar, and cocktail experts Mia Mastroianni, Phil Wills, and Art Sutley want operators to focus on what they call “the Three Ps.”

The engaging trio shared their trio of Ps recently in Las Vegas at the 2023 Bar & Restaurant Expo.

So, what are the Three Ps of hospitality? People, Place, and Product. Operators who pull the threads tighter on each of these crucial elements will be well on their way to improving operations and the guest experience.

People

Remember all the way back to a week ago when I shared Mastroianni, Wills, and Sutley’s thoughts on service versus hospitality? Consider the first P a deeper dive into that topic.

Operators need to focus on two categories of people who help their businesses succeed: their teams and their guests.

Addressing the former, the trio feels that operators are centering a disproportionate amount of their attention on guests in comparison to staff.

“We’re not lacking for people who want to work in the business and are outperforming other industries, but we’re not focusing on staff like we focus on guests,” says Wills. “Treat everyone with respect, including through the hiring process. If you don’t engage your staff, you won’t retain them. You need to show them they can grow in your business.”

According to Sutley, 89 percent of operators say that labor costs present a “significant challenge.” It follows, then, that committing to treating staff with respect and nurturing their careers isn’t just the right thing to do, it’s smart business.

Look for people with passion, those you can motivate to go above and beyond so you’re not stuck with a team full of space-fillers who are just after a paycheck, suggests Mastroianni.

Of course, operators and their teams must also focus on providing exceptional service and experiences to guests.

“Treat ever guest like a pearl in an oyster,” advises Wills. “They’re the pearl, we’re the oyster. We need to ‘protect’ them.” Anything less, cautions Sutley, and guests won’t return.

Place

Interestingly, the trio touched on design, aesthetic, and vibe. However, that isn’t the crux of the second P.

Rather, Place is really goes back to the guest experience. The design, aesthetic, and vibe need to meet guest expectations.

“Make sure your space is what it’s supposed to be,” says Wills.

For example, if a concept presents itself as a high-end cocktail bar, the four walls need to deliver on that expectation. With the exception of a handful of high-level examples, an upscale bar won’t survive if they deliver a dive bar—not neighborhood bar, dive bar—vibe and service. (For the record, I love a dive bar. But I don’t expect to encounter TV trope-style dive bar service if I walk through the doors of a high-end cocktail bar.)

One way operators can ensure their space is what it should be is standardization. Once a concept goes from idea to brick and mortar, when the owner’s vision is realized, the team needs to deliver a matching experience. Steps of service, systems, procedures…standardization is the name of the service game.

“Standardize your opening, shift, and closing procedures and systems to maintain your place,” says Mastroianni.

Every team member—front of house, back of house, leadership—needs to know and buy into an operator’s standards.

Product

Standardization breeds consistency. And consistency is a key element of the third P, Product.

Per Sutley, 76 percent of operators have noticed that guests are opting for more premium drinks. That’s great news, but it’s not the whole story.

It’s great that guests are opting for more expensive drink options. After all, that can certainly help the bottom line.

“However,” cautions Mastroianni, “they won’t come back without consistency in production.”

To drive this point home, consider this story from Mastroianni. A bartender made her a drink, and it was pretty good. She ordered another one from the same bartender and watched him make it differently the second time around. Not only was this second version different, it was better. While one could view this story through a positive lens—the drink was even better the next time!—that’s not the correct takeaway.

If the bartender was committed to building cocktails consistently, the second version of that cocktail would’ve been the first one served to Mastroianni. It would be the best version, and it would always be that impressive version.

When we’re fighting the possibility that up to 70 percent of first-time guests never return, the importance of product consistency can’t be overstated.

“Really focus on the small details to affect big change and get guests through the doors and keep coming back,” says Wills.

Image: Aleksandar Pasaric on Pexels