Wage increase

Rocky Start to California’s Fast-food Wage Hike

by David Klemt

AI-generated image of a $20 bill with a cheeseburger covering the president's face, in street art style

I instructed AI to draw a cheeseburger on a $20 bill, in street art style. Enjoy.

We’re barely two weeks into the $20-per-hour wage hike for fast-food workers in California and not everyone is happy with the results thus far.

That is, of course, if reports are accurate. However, the stories coming out of the Golden State are raising eyebrows.

On April 1, the minimum wage for fast-food workers in California jumped to $20 per hour. On the surface, AB 1228 appears to be a victory for hourly hospitality professionals employed by fast-food concepts.

Unfortunately, once we go beyond the surface, things aren’t that cut and dry.

Operators in California are implementing all manner of adaptations in response to the state’s minimum wage boost:

Increasing menu prices.
Cutting staff hours.
Reducing staff.
Decreasing operating hours.
Closing one or more days of the week.
Postponing updates and upgrades.
Focusing on delivery.
Introducing automation.
Putting items that require less labor on the menu.
Closing locations permanently.

It should go without saying but a wage increase doesn’t do much good if one’s hours are reduced significantly. Further, it does zero good if one’s employer shutters the workplace.

Per reporting, that’s precisely the situation team at one Fosters Freeze location is in currently. On April 1, workers at a Lemoore, California, location received a group text explaining that their restaurant was closing permanently. Understandably, some staff thought the text was an April Fool’s Day prank.

Certainly, the Lemoore Fosters Freeze isn’t the only restaurant closure related directly to the minimum-wage hike. Nor, it seems, will it be the last.

More Pain Points

When people hear about fast-food menu price increases, the assumption is that guests will reduce visits. Or, perhaps they’ll adjust their usual order. Alternately, some people anticipate guests will give their business to a different fast-food brand.

However, there’s another result that some fast-food operators in California are anticipating or experiencing already.

At a certain point, perception of value is affected negatively. Eventually, a consumer will perceive more value in visiting a full-service restaurant than a QSR or LSR. So, it’s likely that fast-food operators in California will lose guests to traditional “sit-down” concepts.

Should that possibility become a reality, traffic will drop. When the traffic drops, workers’ hours are reduced. Some operators, therefore, will lose staff to FSRs; people need to go where the work and money are, after all.

So, beyond the need to adapt to comply with the new minimum-wage law, fast-food operators must compete with FSRs to keep staff and guests.

What’s a Fast Food Restaurant?

Curious about how California defines “fast food restaurant” in AB 1228, I looked up the text of the bill.

The relevant parts are found under section 1474:

“(a) ‘National fast food chain’ means a set of limited-service restaurants consisting of more than 60 establishments nationally that share a common brand, or that are characterized by standardized options for decor, marketing, packaging, products, and services, and which are primarily engaged in providing food and beverages for immediate consumption on or off premises where patrons generally order or select items and pay before consuming, with limited or no table service. For purposes of the definitions in this part, ‘limited-service restaurant’ includes, but is not limited to, an establishment with the North American Industry Classification System Code 722513.”

1474 also includes the following:

“(c) (1) Except as provided in paragraph (2), ‘fast food restaurant’ means a limited-service restaurant in the state that is part of a national fast food chain.”

Interestingly, there’s also this exemption:

“(2) ‘Fast food restaurant’ shall not include an establishment that on September 15, 2023, operates a bakery that produces for sale on the establishment’s premises bread, as defined under Part 136 of Subchapter B of Chapter I of Title 21 of the Code of Federal Regulations, so long as it continues to operate such a bakery. This exemption applies only where the establishment produces for sale bread as a stand-alone menu item, and does not apply if the bread is available for sale solely as part of another menu item.”

Further, AB 610 carves out more exemptions.

Accusations of Corruption

The bakery exemption is fueling accusations of corruption.

Per reports, the exemption is quite favorable for Panera Bread. Why is that particular chain being held up as an example of special treatment and corruption?

As it turns out, should reporting prove accurate, a Panera Bread franchisee and billionaire named Greg Flynn is a Governor Gavin Newsom campaign donor. It’s claimed that Flynn has donated more than $200,000 to Gov. Newsom.

Last month, Flynn, in response to what has been dubbed “PaneraGate,” stated that the minimum wage at his franchise locations would rise to $20 per hour. This announcement was, Flynn claimed, to remain competitive, and in no way a reaction to the controversy surrounding what many perceived to be a favorable exemption for a donor, high school friend, and past business partner.

Again, California is barely two weeks in to this mandated pay rise. To say it’s early days is an understatement. There will be further consequences and adaptations for months and years to come.

So far, however, while many workers and even business owners are happy with the new law, some are already sounding alarms and pushing back.

Image: Shutterstock. Disclaimer: This image was generated by an Artificial Intelligence (AI) system.

Chipotle Sales Jump Shows Guests Will Pay More

by David Klemt

Chipotle’s latest earnings report may show that guests are willing to pay more at their favorite restaurants.

In Q3, the fast-casual giant’s net sales grew by nearly 22 percent. Per reports, same-store sales rose by just over 15 percent.

Is it possible that Chipotle’s earnings—which exceeded Wall Street estimates—indicate that guests will tolerate price hikes?

Rising Costs

No, it’s not a “hot take” to state the obvious: Everything is more expensive.

All operators and managers are aware that costs are rising across the board. Beef, chicken wings, cooking oils… Prices are increasing and the trend is expected to continue.

Not that any of us need a real-world example, but Chef Brian Duffy shared on episode 53 of the Bar Hacks episode that he now has to price a pound of chicken wings at $13.

One reason that Chipotle made the choice to raise prices comes down to rising beef prices. Another is increased freight costs.

As every armchair economist knows, when a business’ costs rise that increase falls on its customers.

The reason is fairly simple: If prices remain the same while costs rise, the situation becomes untenable, the business doesn’t generate enough revenue, and doors close.

So, Chipotle’s decision was simple. The fast-casual chain announced in June that menu prices would increase by about four percent to defray rising costs.

Rising Wages

Chipotle’s June announcement followed one the company made in May.

Six months ago, Chipotle announced the hourly wage for their restaurant workers would increase to $15 by June.

How did the company afford to raise hourly wages, offset ingredient costs, and deal with rising freight rates? The aforementioned menu price hike.

Now, Wall Street didn’t seem to anticipate backlash toward Chipotle for increasing their prices. However, plenty of other people have said—and still say—that customers won’t support restaurants or bars that raise prices.

It appears that a significant percentage of brand-loyal customers will remain loyal and continue to support the businesses they like even through price hikes.

Is This the Way?

I’ll address a crucial detail: Chipotle is a fast-casual brand valued at close to $52 billion.

They’ve got incredible brand recognition and tremendous purchasing power. Reportedly, there are 2,857 Chipotle locations in the United States. In fact, the company announced in February of this year that it planned to open 200 more locations this year.

So, no, there’s not a direct comparison to be made between Chipotle and an independent restaurant or bar.

However, that doesn’t mean there’s no lesson to be learned here.

Chipotle was transparent about the reasons for their price hikes. The Great Resignation has shined a spotlight on wages, and Chipotle addressed that concern.

The pandemic has also unleashed havoc on supply chains. Again, Chipotle was forthcoming about the challenges the company was facing.

Moving forward, it may be wise for restaurant and bar owners to address menu price increases. There does seem to be some level of understanding among the more rational guests out there that if they support increased wages for hospitality workers; understand supply chain challenges; and know costs are up for everything, they’re going to see price hikes.

You very likely need to raise at least some of your prices. When you do so, consider telling your guests why. You may be surprised by the support you receive.

Image: fancycrave1 from Pixabay