Food predictions

by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

HM Makes 2024 Culinary Predictions

Hotel Management Makes 2024 Culinary Predictions

by David Klemt

Tartare of mushrooms on a plate

Two weeks before we rang in 2024, Hotel Management revealed a handful of compelling culinary predictions for the new year.

Of course, time will tell if these are accurate. After all, it’s just January 5. Still, they’re all worth a look.

One in particular stands out from the rest, at least for me. You’ll find that prediction at the bottom of this article.

Alright—let’s dive in!

Streamlining Menus

Perhaps it’s a validation of the fallacy of choice. Maybe it’s that people are overwhelmed and want to make less decisions.

Either way, Hotel Management thinks operators will offer fewer choices to improve the guest experience.

That may sound nonsensical to some operators. Shrinking the menu to enhance a person’s enjoyment?

However, there’s more nuance than simply eliminating items. Indeed, Hotel Management points to focusing on local, seasonal ingredients to create curated menus.

Further, a smaller menu allows the kitchen team to innovate, develop their skills, and truly build impressive dishes.

There’s also, of course, the benefit of lowered costs. This is particularly true for operators who embrace the art of the cross-utilization of ingredients.

Don’t Hassle Me, I’m Local

Sourcing and highlighting local ingredients is mainstream at this point. At least in my opinion, it has gone from fad to trend and become a staple of successful operation.

That doesn’t make it any less important, of course. In fact, it appears more important than ever.

Guests want to connect with the restaurants and bars they visit. One effective method of making this connection is to offer a true taste of location.

Utilizing local ingredients—even better if they’re unique to the area—also supports the community. Fostering connections with guests, producers and other small businesses is a win-win-win.

Shroom, Shroom

It makes sense that when some people read or hear the phrase “plant-based” they think of Impossible or Beyond.

However, plant-based dishes and menus just consist primarily of vegetables, whole grains, legumes, nuts, seeds, fruits, or fungi.

It’s that last one that Hotel Management thinks will have a moment in 2024.

Among the reasons for this prediction? Mushrooms absorb flavors easily, impart umami, and are versatile.

Oh, and a fun bit of trivia: While often categorized as vegetables, mushrooms are considered neither plant- or animal-based; they’re a type of fungus.

One brand embracing the culinary magic of mushrooms is Meati. I expect these products to become as well-known as Impossible, Beyond, Gardein, and Morningstar Farms.

This is the One

So, this is the prediction that jumped out at me: seacuterie.

As the name suggests, it’s charcuterie but with seafood. Simply put, you salt, smoke, and cure seafood, then present it as you would charcuterie.

Hotel Management provides three interesting examples of seacuterie that will likely grab your guests’ attention:

  • pastrami-style tuna loin;
  • octopus salami; and
  • swordfish ham.

I know that if I saw at least the salami and ham, I’d raise an eyebrow.

Now, it’s all well and good to identify seacuterie as a menu item with potential to grow in 2024. But what if you’re not sure where to start with it? Well, I dug into it to learn more and provide you with a real-world example.

Chef Aaron Black, chef de cuisine at PB Catch Seafood + Bar in Palm Beach, Florida, is a seacuterie pioneer. And it just so happens that PB Catch provides guests the opportunity to build their own seacuterie boards.

Guests can choose three seacuterie items for $24 and six for $45, with the option to add an additional item for $8. Selections include salmon pastrami, octopus torchon, and mero bass jerky.

If it fits with your concept, seacuterie should re-energize your regulars and tempt new guests to check out your restaurant.

Image: jevgeni mironov on Unsplash

KRG Hospitality menu development. Restaurant. Bar. Cafe. Lounge. Hotel. Resort. Food. Drinks.

by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Delivery and Takeout Food Trends for 2021: United States

Delivery and Takeout Food Trends for 2021: United States

by David Klemt

Yesterday we reviewed food delivery data and 2021 food trend predictions for Canada. Now it’s the United States’ turn.

Before we jump into the data and predictions, a word on succeeding with delivery in 2021 and beyond.

As I pointed out yesterday, when an operator signs up with a third-party delivery service, their guest data becomes the delivery company’s data.

That means that company and not the restaurant or bar owns the guest journey and guest engagement, and therefore owns the guest for all intents and purposes.

When a restaurant, bar or other F&B business enters into a contract with a third-party delivery company—unless otherwise explicitly stated—they give up control of targeted marketing efforts. In other words, third-party delivery platforms disrupt the guest journey.

Delivery became a way for many businesses to generate revenue during 2020, for obvious reasons. Operators who can afford to implement first-part and last-mile delivery should do so to maximize their revenue and control the guest journey and marketing.

To help operators own delivery, we’ve reviewed end-of-year reports from three delivery titans—UberEats, Grubhub and DoorDash—to share their 2020 findings. When it comes to the most ordered items, cuisines and categories, some third-party platforms are willing to share data.

According to UberEats, comfort foods were the most popular category:

  • Burgers and fries
  • Burritos
  • Pad Thai
  • Mac and cheese
  • California rolls
  • Chicken Tikka Masala
  • Miso soup
  • Mozzarella sticks

Per the platform, the following cuisines proved most popular:

  • American
  • Italian
  • Mexican
  • Chinese
  • Japanese
  • Thai
  • Indian
  • French
  • Caribbean
  • Greek

As UberEats stated in their report, it appears that customers found a way to travel after all—they just did it through food.

Pizza, bagels, wings, tacos, burgers and dumplings led the way for Grubhub in 2020. The most popular pizza order was Hawaiian (because some people are monsters and put pineapple on their pies), while the most popular burger was garlic mushroom. Grubhub revealed that their top French fry was the loaded curly fry, and the most popular plant-based item was the eggplant burger.

In descending order, the top F&B Grubhub orders overall from 2020 were:

  • Spicy chicken sandwich
  • Chicken burrito bowl
  • Chicken wings
  • Waffle fries
  • Cold brew coffee
  • Steak quesadilla
  • Iced latte
  • Fish and chips
  • Strawberry shake
  • Roast beef sandwich

Per Grubhub, the top breakfast item was the acai bowl, the top side dish was French fries, the number-one late-night order was strawberry cheesecake, and the most ordered dessert was apple pie.

Moving on to DoorDash, the platform identified their top ten 2020 items back in November:

  • Chicken fingers and French fries
  • Fried chicken sandwich
  • Mac and cheese
  • Chips and guacamole
  • Apple pie
  • Pad Thai
  • Chicken quesadilla
  • Iced coffee
  • California roll
  • Chicken Tikka Masala

The UberEats, Grubhub and DoorDash revelations align with data collected by the National Restaurant Association between November and December of 2020. Per the NRA, the following were the top items sold by full-service casual, family and fine-dining restaurants:

  • Burgers
  • Seafood
  • Pizza
  • Steak
  • Chicken (excluding chicken wings)
  • Breakfast items
  • Pasta
  • Mexican food
  • Sandwiches, subs and wraps
  • Chicken wings

According to the NRA, the items below were the most popular for limited-service restaurants (fast casual, quick-service, coffee and snack):

  • Sandwiches, subs and wraps
  • Pizza
  • Burgers
  • Chicken (excluding chicken wings)
  • Ice cream, cookies and cakes
  • Baked goods
  • Breakfast items
  • Mexican food
  • BBQ items
  • Seafood

For 2021, DoorDash predicted the following items to see a lift:

  • Sausage, egg and cheese on a biscuit
  • Create your own omelettes
  • Carrot cake
  • Cinnamon roll
  • Caramel latte
  • Chocolate brownies
  • Black coffee
  • Donuts
  • Blueberry muffin
  • Biscuits

DoorDash revealed that Mexican, Chinese and Tex-Mex were the top cuisines ordered via the platform. The company also predicted five cuisines would be popular in 2021:

  • Taiwanese
  • French
  • Filipino
  • Australian
  • Moroccan

When it comes to 2021, multiple sources have named vegetarian, vegan, plant-based, and health and wellness items as the foods to watch. Even this early into the year it’s not exactly a controversial statement to say that all of those categories are going to perform well in 2021.

According to DoorDash, nearly half of Americans (47 percent) plan to consume more plant-based items. Whether it’s truly healthier than its traditional counterparts, plant-based is perceived that way. In total, per DoorDash, 72 percent of Americans plan to make a concerted effort to eat healthier in 2021. This is likely due to an increased interest in boosting immune systems due to Covid-19.

Put another way, operators will likely struggle if they don’t add vegan, vegetarian, and plant-based foods to their streamlined menus, another trend expected to continue through 2021.

Predictions from the Specialty Food Association in particular caught our attention. For 2021, the association has predicted spices and herbs native to West Africa (Senegal, for example) will be in demand. Scandinavian and Cambodian flavors are also expected to perform well, as are Latin American and Southeast Asian items.

Due to interest in tahini sauce and black sesame, the SFA expects halva, which is a Middle Eastern confection, to get plenty of attention. The SFA and Datassential both named fermented honey as an item to watch in 2021.

Along with vegan and plant-based items, creative meal kits are expected to perform well. Restaurants and bars will continue to face restrictions and indoor dining bans over the course of at least the next few months. Creative meal kits will get the attention of customers who have grown tired of preparing the same meals over and over.

Whether an operator chooses to stick with their current menu or embrace one or more food trends, they should look into first-party or last-mile delivery. It’s imperative that operators own their guest journey and marketing efforts.

For more information about first-party and last-mile delivery, please listen to Bar Hacks episode 13 with “Rev” Ciancio, an advocate of keeping delivery and data in-house.

Image: Robert Anasch on Unsplash

by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Delivery and Takeout Food Trends for 2021: Canada

Delivery and Takeout Food Trends for 2021: Canada

by David Klemt

Patrons, analysts and experts have spoken: delivery and takeout will remain standards in the new era of hospitality.

Analysts and experts have spoken with data, and consumers have spoken with their dollars.

But there’s another consequential voice that matters when it comes to delivery: that of the operator.

There’s no denying that the operator is shoved aside in the third-party delivery relationship. At the very least, that’s the overwhelming perception. Once an operator signs on with such a service, their guest data becomes the delivery company’s data.

Whatever company owns the data owns the guest, their journey and engagement, and the targeted marketing efforts. That means a restaurant or bar’s guests receive offers and promotions for their competitors.

In short, third-party delivery platforms disrupt the guest journey.

However, there are some data the third-party delivery services do share. As we saw midway through 2020, for example, Uber Eats and Grubhub released the top orders and other useful information in publicly available reports. Some of the services also release end-of-year or year-in-review reports, as SkipTheDishes did for Canada.

Most of these reports are laser-focused on the United States. That’s logical given the number of bars, restaurants and other hospitality businesses to which Grubhub, Uber Eats, Postmates, Instacart, Seamless and other services have access.

SkipTheDishes, for the Americans reading this, is the Grubhub of Canada. For the Canadians reading, below are SkipTheDishes’ data regarding top orders, cuisine, and demographics in 2020:

  • Top Cuisines: Chinese, Italian, American/Canadian
  • Top Orders (General): Asian dishes, pizza, burgers
  • Top Orders by Item: Chicken sandwiches (also the top item in 2020 in the US), burgers, and French fries (mid-year data)
  • Top Vegan Provinces: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, British Columbia
  • Top Organic Provinces: British Columbia, Ontario, Alberta
  • Top Gluten-free Provinces: Manitoba, Alberta, The Maritimes
  • Top Dairy-free Provinces: British Columbia, Alberta, The Maritimes
  • Top Kosher Provinces: Alberta, Ontario, Saskatchewan
  • Top Dayparts: 5:00 PM was the most popular order time, and late afternoon (3:00-4:00 PM) and weekdays saw lifts. Late-night ordering (9:00 PM and beyond) slowed. (Mid-year data.)
  • Top Pre-order Daypart: 5:00 PM. More Canadians got into the habit of pre-ordering their dinners. (Mid-year data.)
  • Fastest-growing Segment by Age Group: 65+
  • Most Revealing Datum: 81% of customers ordered from restaurants they’d never visited in person.

That was last year. What’s in store for Canada this year? A scan of a few sources—Food Network Canada, Restaurants Canada, and Chatelaine—offers some valuable insights.

Plant-based items and foods recognized for boosting a person’s immune system are expected to be popular. The pandemic has given many consumers a reason to reevaluate what they’re putting into their bodies. All three sources predict people will be interested in and order plant-based foods and focus on health and wellness.

Both Food Network Canada and Chatelaine predicted chickpeas—an inexpensive, versatile and plant-based protein source—will be among the top food items sought out by restaurant guests (in-person) and customers (takeout, delivery). Most operators should be able to adapt and get creative to add chickpea-based items to their menus. The two sources also predicted that snacking will replace meals (at least occasionally), so snackable items and sides may take off this year.

Food Network Canada pointed to sauerkraut as an example of a health and wellness food item that may see a boost in popularity and demand due to its probiotic and gut health properties. The source also predicted that coffee and coffee-based F&B items will get a lift in 2021.

Restaurants Canada predicted that comfort food, popular throughout 2020, will remain in high demand. However, 2021 will bring in an interest in elevated riffs on comfort food classics. Citing specific examples, Restaurants Canada suggested Pad Thai French fries and Pulled Pork Mac and Cheese. The Canadian food industry association predicted that interest in and support of Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) cuisine, flavors and businesses will continue through 2021.

All three sources listed plant jerky as food item to watch in 2021.

What else should be in store for this year? Operators embracing first-party or so-called “last-mile” delivery to grab their share of the orders of this year’s trendy food items. Platforms such as Lunchbox, Olo, ChowNow can provide operators with the ability to own delivery and therefore the entire guest journey in the new era of hospitality. It’s likely an operator’s current POS can be updated to “unlock” in-house delivery, which would then need to be supported by a delivery menu, delivery supplies, and staff training.

For more information about first-party and last-mile delivery, please listen to Bar Hacks episode 13 with “Rev” Ciancio, an advocate of keeping delivery and data in-house.

Image: Norma Mortenson from Pexels

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