Statistics

Yellow neon "butter" sign and scaffolding
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Canadian Trends 2022: Technomic

Canadian Trends 2022: Technomic

by David Klemt

Yellow neon "butter" sign and scaffolding

Curious about what to expect in 2022 as a Canadian restaurant, bar or hotel operator?

Technomic has some predictions for next year.

Reviewing their “Canadian Trends: Looking Ahead to 2022” report, creativity and streamlining will be keys to success.

Let’s jump in!

Butter

Yes, this is why I chose the image above. Technomic is very specifically identifying butter as an important 2022 F&B trend.

And no, they don’t appear to be predicting the popularity a particularly rare or esoteric butter. The industry intelligence firm means butter will prove important in 2022.

In large part, Technomic is pointing to comfort food as a driver for butter.

Generally, the firm points to how versatile butter is in the kitchen. Browned and herb-infused butters, says Technomic, will find its way into cocktails.

Flavor and texture will play an important role, extending the butter prediction into buttery foods territory. For example, Technomic predicts butterscotch, buttermilk and ghee will see a boost in usage and demand.

Additionally, the plant-based movement will help nut butters grow more popular. In fact, Technomic says nut butters will find their ways onto burgers and into cocktails.

Interestingly, the firm’s butter prediction gives operators two larger trends to watch: comfort food and plant-based.

Cross-utilization

You don’t need me to tell you that North America—and the rest of the world—is facing supply chain issues.

I know you’re exhausted from just the past nearly two years of constant adaptation and pivoting. In 2022, you’ll have to continue with your creative problem solving.

The supply chain challenge (there’s an understatement) requires creativity in several areas. This includes the kitchen and menu.

Technomic suggests that one path forward through supply chain problems involves ingredient preparations:

  • Pickling
  • Candying
  • Salt-baking

The firm says these creative takes on ingredients operators already have will extend product life; add new flavors to dishes; and deliver new textures. Those last two offer guests new experiences.

In addition, getting creative with the ingredients you may be able to get more readily will help streamline and update 2022 menus. However, revising your menu will require careful consideration of your supply chain and cross-utilization, with a heavy helping of creative prep.

Running Lean

Smaller footprints. Shrunken staff. Streamlined menus. Smaller, shrunken, streamlined, optimized, leaner…

Call the process whatever you want, Technomic is predicting that operators will need to “optimize” (read: make smaller) their businesses.

Of course, there isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution. We’ve read and heard predictions since last year about what will need to shrink moving forward.

While some recent news reports say that ghost kitchens are out, Technomic seems to think that’s not the case. Technomic suggests ghost kitchens will remain viable for operators who want to expand without investing in real estate.

Additionally, Technomic’s report suggests something that should come as no surprise. In short, if it works for a brand or location, smaller may be better and here to stay.

Growth

Now, this is the most promising of Technomic’s predictions: Growth.

Per the firm, the foodservice industry in Canada was down 29 percent in Q1 of 2021. Pre-pandemic, sales reached $95 billion. That represents a loss of nearly $30 billion.

However, there’s reason to be optimistic in 2022, according to Technomic.

The firm expects growth of 21 percent in 2022 over 2021, or sales of $74.8 billion. Should this prediction prove accurate, 2022 would close just three percent under pre-pandemic sales.

Technomic identifies full-service as the foodservice segment to experience the most growth next year at 26.2 percent. In comparison, the firm predicts limited-service to grow 7.3 percent.

Next year won’t be easy. 2022 won’t be a magical return to normalcy. But there is room for optimism if Technomic’s predictions are correct.

Image: Jon Tyson on Unsplash

Classic vintage Dodge pickup truck with winter wreath on grille
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Hard Numbers for the Holidays

Hard Numbers for the Holidays

by David Klemt

Classic vintage Dodge pickup truck with winter wreath on grille

From comfort foods and specific seasonal flavors to LTOs and traditional tastes, data reveal what consumers want this holiday season.

As we reported last week, there’s reason to be optimistic about this year’s holiday season.

According to Datassential, consumers are eager to visit sit-down restaurants this month. One of their key findings was that the average group size will likely be smaller than normal.

Specifically, most groups will probably consist of seven to 12 guests. Crucially, Datassential sees potential from people eager to gather with family and friends for the holidays. Even better, of all options, sit-down restaurants are the top choice for gatherings outside of homes.

But drilling down deeper, what do guests want from restaurants during the holidays?

The Numbers

So, when it comes to the holidays, Datassential wants operators to remember that December includes more than Christmas and New Year’s Eve.

To that end, the first numbers I’m presenting are dates:

  • Hanukkah: November 28 to December 6 (ends this evening!)
  • Soyal: December 21
  • Christmas: December 25
  • Boxing Day: December 26
  • Kwanzaa: December 26 to January 1
  • New Year’s Eve: December 31
  • New Year’s Day: January 1

Those dates reveal something compelling: Plenty of opportunity to get creative and ramp up limited-time offers. Per Datassential, nearly half (44 percent) of consumers look forward to seasonal, holiday-themed LTOs.

In fact, roughly two out of five consumers find seasonality to be an important factor in their decisions to order LTOS and new menu items.

However, it’s important to know your audience and brand when coming up with special menu items. That’s because according to Datassential, 62 percent of consumers, at least for 2021, want classics and comfort food this season.

So, Datassential cautions operators against veering “too far” from traditional seasonal menu items and comfort foods. That said, you should know how far outside the box you can push your guests.

The Flavors

We’re not technically out of the fall just yet. The start of winter is December 21.

It can be smart to begin transitioning from fall to winter flavors over the next week or so. However, it may not be wise to toss fall flavors out entirely.

Datassential identifies the following as key fall flavors:

  • Apple cranberry
  • Butternut squash
  • Chestnut
  • Duck
  • Pumpkin pie
  • Stuffing

And these are important winter flavors, per Datassential:

  • Chocolate almond
  • Candy cane
  • Lobster cream
  • Lox
  • Red velvet
  • Toasted coconut

Those are by no means the only fall and winter flavors that will appeal to your guests. However, Datassential identifies them as top fall and winter flavors.

Something to think about when finalizing your winter LTO food and beverage menus.

Another thing to think about? Updating your listings to include holiday hours, LTOs, and other menu changes.

Image: Ryan Wallace on Unsplash

Cook making handmade pasta noodles
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Global Cuisine Performance

Global Cuisine Performance

by David Klemt

Cook making handmade pasta noodles

We don’t have a crystal ball to help us see which cuisines will be most popular. Obviously, the same holds true for knowing which are just now getting recognition.

However, we do have the next-best thing: data from Datassential.

Recently, the food and beverage analytics firm ranked dozens of global cuisines according to their current state of popularity among diners.

Then, they shared that information in October during their “Around the World in 80 Trends” webinar.

“Ubiquity”

When analyzing food and beverage trends, Datassential funnels them into four distinct designations: Inception, Adoption, Proliferation, and Ubiquity.

Arguably, once a trend reaches Proliferation and Ubiquity it becomes a mainstay. So, we can more than likely stop referring to it as a trend.

Now, the two most precarious stages for a trend are Inception and Adoption. Plenty of trends die on the Inception vine. Several won’t make it out of Adoption.

When you see Datassential’s list of global cuisines that fly under the Ubiquity banner, I doubt there will be much surprise:

  • Italian
  • Southern
  • Mexican
  • Creole/Cajun
  • Tex Mex
  • Chinese

So, any shocks to your system there? Most likely not.

“Proliferation”

Another to label this Datassential designation is “second most popular.” Each of these cuisines has a clear shot at reaching Ubiquity.

In fact, I find one of the global cuisines in this category surprising. It’s the first one in this list:

  • Japanese
  • Regional Italian
  • Regional Mexican
  • Greek
  • Mediterranean
  • Regional US
  • Southwestern
  • Cuban

As you’ll see, the lists grow longer steadily as we move down from Ubiquity.

“Adoption”

For me, it’ll be interesting to review follow-up data from Datassential regarding global cuisines.

As such, I’m eager to learn which cuisine from the list below reaches Proliferation in 2022:

  • Caribbean
  • Indian
  • French
  • Regional Chinese
  • Oaxacan
  • German
  • Middle Eastern
  • Korean
  • Ashkenazi
  • Hawaiian
  • Vietnamese
  • Venezuelan
  • Spanish
  • Sicilian
  • Jamaican
  • Israeli
  • Thai
  • British

To be honest, my first reaction to seeing French cuisine under the Adoption banner was surprise. Of course, I then thought back to how many French restaurants we have here in Las Vegas.

Sure, this little city in the desert is a foodie destination. However, French restaurants don’t dot the landscape like those that focus on other cuisines.

“Inception”

That brings us to the first stage of any trend: Inception.

Now, the first thing you’ll notice is that this category contains the most global cuisines. Whereas Adoption features 18, Proliferation lists eight, and a mere six have reached Ubiquity, Inception identifies two dozen.

They are as follows:

  • Brazilian
  • Mizrahi
  • Russian
  • Malaysian
  • Croatian
  • Moroccan
  • Lebanese
  • South African
  • Native American
  • Central American
  • Argentinian
  • Peruvian
  • Filipino
  • Appalachian
  • Sephardic
  • Ethiopian
  • Senegalese
  • Scandinavian
  • Sonoran
  • Nigerian
  • Iranian
  • Persian
  • Turkish
  • Polish

Again, there are some surprises here, at least for me. For example, I expected Ethiopian cuisine to have reached Adoption by now.

Takeaways

Of course, there are multiple ways to interpret this data.

First, you can embrace Ubiquity, leveraging their incredible popularity. However, standing out and building traffic will be challenging.

Second, you can feature Proliferation cuisine. Sure, these have yet to reach the Ubiquity stage. But they’re close to doing so, and you’ll also face stiff competition.

Third, focusing on cuisine from the Adoption designation involves taking a risk but mitigating it somewhat. These cuisines are developing a following and guest demand.

Finally, the riskiest move, depending on location: featuring Inception cuisines. But with risk comes reward. Identify a gap in a certain area—something we can do with our signature feasibility studies—and you may realize staggering success.

So, what do you think? Did you find any of Datassential’s designations surprising for certain cuisines? Let us know on our Instagram, Facebook, Twitter or LinkedIn pages!

Image: Jorge Zapata on Unsplash

Friends toasting with Champagne outside during the winter
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Things Looking Up For December

Things Looking Up For December

by David Klemt

Friends toasting with Champagne outside during the winter

Food and beverage research and analytics firm Datassential’s end-of-year insights point to a positive outlook for restaurants in December.

While many consumers still have reservations about spending time in public, others are eager to return to “normal.”

Restaurants and bars are expected to play an important role in reaching normalcy this holiday season.

Let’s take a look at Datassential’s 2021 Holiday Issue statistics.

Hesitancy Waning?

Let’s get the less-promising data out of the way first. Some consumers still find the idea of in-person restaurant visits uncomfortable.

Nearly half of Boomers surveyed by Datassential (46 percent) said they’re “significantly less likely” to visit a fast-casual or fast-food restaurant in December.

And, interestingly, 42 percent of men gave the same answer for visiting traditional sit-down restaurants.

However, of all the in-person options presented to participants by Datassential, restaurants performed the best.

More than half of all respondents—men, women, Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, Boomers—plan to visit fast-casual, fast-food, and sit-down restaurants more in December than they have in recent months.

It’s most likely that anticipation for restaurant visits is driven by the desire to gather and celebrate the holidays.

Overall, 57 percent of respondents plan to visit fast-casual and fast-food restaurants more. And 47 percent expect to visit sit-down restaurants more.

That makes those two options the top answers.

Only 16 percent of respondents indicated they don’t plan on visiting any on-site foodservice venues.

Regarding bars, sports bars, lounges, and nightclubs, men are “significantly more likely” (23 percent) to visit those types of venues in December.

Holiday Opportunity

According to Datassential’s report, the opportunity for holiday bookings is out there.

More than likely, gatherings will simply be smaller than they were prior to the pandemic.

Asked about plans to gather at restaurants in December, get-togethers are expected to be “moderately sized.”

Almost half of survey respondents (44 percent) plan on gathering at restaurants in parties of seven to twelve.

Just over a quarter (29 percent) plan on get-togethers of six or fewer of people. Only 18 percent of respondents are planning large (13 to 18 people) gatherings at restaurants in December.

As far as parties of 19 or more, just nine percent of respondents plan “very large” gatherings.

Of course, individual operations’ results will vary. However, this information gives us an idea of what traffic may look like for many operators.

2021 Spending

This is where the news looks even better for restaurants, bars and nightclubs in December.

When asked about spending money on going out to eat and for drinks, just 18 percent of respondents said they planned to spend less this year than in 2020.

Very nearly half (49 percent) plan to spend the same as they did last year. However, 32 percent said they think they’ll increase their spending.

When it comes to New Year’s Eve, the numbers shift a bit. However, 50 percent of respondents plan to spend the same on NYE in 2021 as they did in 2020.

Twenty-six percent plan to spend more on NYE in 2021. Just 24 percent plan to spend less this year on NYE.

Per Datassential, Millennials are most likely to splash out for NYE this year.

So, things won’t be returning to pre-pandemic normalcy by 2021’s end. However, if Datassentials findings prove accurate, things are looking healthier for December.

Image: Christine Jou on Unsplash

Plant-based food bowl
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

How is Plant-based Performing?

How is Plant-based Performing On-premise?

by David Klemt

Plant-based food bowl

With plant-based food options making their way to global fast food chains, it’s clear the category is continuing to heat up.

In fact, it’s likely time to stop referring to plant-based menu items as a trend. Obviously, they’re here to stay.

But how are these items actually performing on-premise? Is the category experiencing real growth or barely noticeable?

“Proliferation”

We’re full throttle into the holiday season. People are focusing on spending time with family and friends.

And what does that mean? Gathering for meals.

So, if restaurant traffic is going to tick up, it makes sense to see if plant-based should be more prevalent on menus.

To that end, Datassential revealed data on this category two weeks ago during their “Holidays Ahead!” webinar. Of four trend-tracking designations—Inception, Adoption, Proliferation, Ubiquity—Datassential notes plant-based menu items are in the Proliferation stage on-premise.

Analyzing data from 2011 to 2021, Datassential showed that the category started growing in terms of menu placement in 2018. As of this year, plant-based items are on nearly five percent of restaurant menus.

That may not seem like impressive growth. However, there was zero-point-zero-percent growth between 2011 and 2014. In 2015 and 2016, Datassential shows that only 0.1 percent of restaurants offered plant-based menu items. That growth doubled in 2017 (0.2 percent), then doubled again in 2018 (0.4 percent).

In 2019, the category quadrupled to inclusion on 1.6 percent of restaurant menus. Last year, that growth more than doubled to 3.5 percent.

According to Datassential, 28 percent of consumers like or love plant-based menu items. Interestingly, the research agency finds that all types of consumers like plant-based items, not just vegetarians or vegans.

The Datassential breakdown of plant-based menu proliferation by restaurant category is as follows:

  • Fast Casual: 11.5%
  • Casual Dining: 5.4%
  • Midscale: 3.9%
  • Quick Service: 3.4%
  • Fine Dining: 1.8%

Chains are more likely, at this time, to feature plant-based menu items.

Upscale Options

Wanting to include plant-based options and knowing where to start are two different things.

As it happens, Datassential featured a timely real-world menu to that should inspire operators this season.

Watercourse Foods in Denver, Colorado, offers mains and sides that will resonate with holiday diners:

  • Seitan Roast (wheat, soy, blend of herbs) which stands in for roast turkey.
  • Pot Pie consisting of carrots, celery, onions and mushroom.
  • Root Vegetable Stuffing made with root veggies (obviously), savory herbs, and housemade bread.
  • Mac and Cheese featuring shells tossed in cheese fondue and topped with shiitake “bacon” bits and breadcrumbs.

As you’ll notice, you don’t need to limit your menu to products from Beyond or Impossible. Obviously, you can leverage their brand recognition but you can also utilize your current plant-based inventory to create housemade menu items.

If you’re ready to embrace plants at your restaurant or bar, activate your kitchen team. With a bit of creativity you can take advantage on the rise in popularity of everything plant-based.

Image: Hermes Rivera on Unsplash

Two shot glasses garnished with salt rim and lemon wedges
by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

Thanksgiving Eve by the Numbers

Thanksgiving Eve by the Numbers

by David Klemt

Two shot glasses garnished with salt rim and lemon wedges

Tonight, guests will be looking to celebrate a bar holiday that’s traditionally lucrative for operators: Thanksgiving Eve, a.k.a. Drinksgiving.

It’s difficult to imagine that any operator or hospitality worker is unaware of Thanksgiving Eve’s status.

Sure, some mark the start of end-of-year celebrations with Halloween or Thanksgiving. However, I feel Thanksgiving Eve truly ushers in the holiday season.

I’d also argue that while retailers have Black Friday and Cyber Monday, operators have the night before Thanksgiving. Yes, New Year’s Eve is also huge, but Thanksgiving Eve is considered the busiest night of the year for bars.

Interestingly, this is a holiday that benefits bars across the nation. In fact, it’s not exclusive to destination cities.

After all, the reason it’s so big, traditionally, is that people are traveling back to their hometowns. And while Thanksgiving is for their families, Thanksgiving Eve is for catching up with childhood and high school friends.

Obviously, there are fantastic bars located in cities outside of their destination counterparts. Hot take, I know.

So, does Thanksgiving Eve deserve its hype ?

The Evidence

Unfortunately, data from 2020 isn’t readily available, for obvious reasons.

However, we do have some data, largely thanks to restaurant management and POS platform Upserve.

One of the simplest ways to analyze Thanksgiving Eve’s impact is to compare it to the previous Wednesday.

Per Upserve, guest counts rose 23 percent in 2018 when compared to the Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving Eve.

Looking at data from more than 10,000 restaurants and bars, Upserve found that guest count totaled 496,883 on November 14, 2018. One week later, that number rose to 643,637.

As Upserve content marketing coordinator Stephanie Resendes says in her Thanksgiving Eve article, “More people = more money.”

Of the 10,000-plus Upserve clients whose data was analyzed, net sales were $17.250 million on the Wednesday preceding Thanksgiving Eve 2018. That number jumped to $22.296 million.

So, looking just at a relatively small sample size from 2018, Thanksgiving Eve’s impact doesn’t seem overblown.

The Drinks

According to Upserve, beer was the year-over-year winner through 2018. It saw the most growth by far on Thanksgiving Eve 2018 when compared to the Wednesday prior and the same period in 2017.

Spirits and wine, at least for Thanksgiving Eve 2018, were nearly tied for second place.

Now, looking at the data for Thanksgiving Eve 2019, spirits saw the most growth overall. Resendes shared that shot sales increased 173 percent on Thanksgiving Eve 2019 when compared to the Wednesday prior.

Tequila led the charge for spirits, rising 156 percent. Vodka saw a 144-percent boost, rum increased 120 percent, whiskey went up 65 percent, and gin saw a lift of 47 percent. For its part, beer sales rose 65 percent.

Not content to simply look at traffic and sales numbers, Upserve also split their clients into four regions. In this way, they identified who parties hardest on Thanksgiving Eve and who needs to ramp things up.

The four regions and their net sales growth from Thanksgiving Eve 2019 compared to the Wednesday prior are below:

  • Midwest: 34 percent
  • Northeast: 34 percent
  • South: 33 percent
  • West: 22 percent

Clearly, there was still growth in the Western region. However, the Midwest and Northeast led the way, with the South just behind them.

We’ll have to wait to see how Thanksgiving Eve 2021 plays out. We’re still waiting on the numbers from 2020. However, Upserve’s data shows that Thanksgiving Eve remains crucial to restaurants and bars throughout America.

Image: Alena Plotnikova on Unsplash

by David Klemt David Klemt No Comments

National Restaurant Association Shares Startling Statistics

National Restaurant Association Shares Startling Statistics

by David Klemt

An email sent out by the National Restaurant Association yesterday included statistics about the state of restaurants in the United States.

The revelations are breathtakingly disturbing.

While Congress “has been trapped in a political tug-of-war,” the reality for restaurants has only gotten bleaker.

According to the NRA, their most recent survey found that 110,000 restaurants have closed since Covid-19 first dug its infected claws into the United States. That’s an increase of 10,000 closures since the NRA’s last survey, the results of which were released back in September.

Many people outside of the industry are likely under the impression these closures are the result of inexperienced owners failing to adapt. A second NRA statistic dispels that misconception.

Sadly, the average age of the restaurants that have been closing is 16 years old. Sixteen percent had been open for more than three decades.

These closures aren’t the result of inexperience, they’re largely the byproduct of mandated shutdowns—repeated, in some markets—and restrictions handed down by officials who don’t understand the business.

Unfortunately, there’s not much reason to be optimistic that these closures are temporary. The majority of survey respondents who have closed their restaurants, 52 percent, said they won’t return.

The NRA is strongly encouraging everyone to let Congress know that enough is enough—they must make real progress to help the industry.

Please visit RestaurantsAct.com, click the button to email your lawmakers, and share that link with family, friends and industry peers. Don’t let Congress leave for the year without making your voice heard and telling them to pass relief for restaurants and bars.

If our elected officials don’t act fast, things will only get worse.

Image by Wokandapix from Pixabay

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