Where Canadians are Moving
by David Klemt

I don’t think anyone understands how much I need this “moving truck” to be real, and how much I want to drive it.
Data relating to inflow and outflow throughout Canada point to implications for major metros, mid-size markets, and hospitality.
On one side of the coin, there appears to be affordability-driven migration (mainly to Alberta). Flip that coin over and we see lifestyle-oriented shifts into smaller Ontario and BC markets.
U-Haul’s 2024 Growth Index gives us the cleanest nationwide list of the top inflow cities across Canada. For outbound trends, I’m analyzing StatsCan’s inter-provincial migration data, which shows where Canadians are exiting.
Most notably, Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver appear to be experiencing the greatest outflow. And when people move, hospitality follows.
The hospitality implications of significant migration are enormous. Talent pools shift, concept viability changes, new nightlife pockets emerge, and major metros face softened demand outside tourist cores.
Before I get any further, a word of caution: As I’ve said countless times in articles, on podcasts, and in conversations, don’t move to a new-to-you (and your brand) market without data supporting that decision. (Scaling within a market in which you already operate also requires data.)
Below, the top inflow and outflow cities across Canada. Both charts also include possible opportunities and impacts.
Top 20 Canadian Inflow Cities (Operator-Focused Table)
| Rank | Market | Key Drivers | Hospitality & Nightlife Opportunities |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calgary, AB | Affordability, jobs | Massive opportunity for mid- to high-energy nightlife, and modern dining. |
| 2 | Edmonton, AB | Jobs, cost | Strong demand for new concepts; large population of younger guests and workers. |
| 3 | Belleville, ON | Affordability | Community-focused dining, pubs, and breweries. |
| 4 | Trenton, ON | Military, cost | Family dining and approachable bars. |
| 5 | Pembroke, ON | Affordability | Neighborhood restaurants, and pubs. |
| 6 | Brantford, ON | Growth corridor | Casual dining, lounges, and modern pubs. |
| 7 | Medicine Hat, AB | Affordability | Simple, approachable concepts. |
| 8 | Collingwood, ON | Lifestyle, tourism | High-end dining, wine bars, and boutique nightlife. |
| 9 | Parry Sound, ON | Outdoor lifestyle | Seasonal F&B and experiential venues. |
| 10 | Chatham–Kent, ON | Affordability | Family and value-driven dining. |
| 11 | Innisfil, ON | GTA spillover | Suburban nightlife. |
| 12 | St. Thomas, ON | Industrial growth | Mid-market restaurants. |
| 13 | Barrie, ON | Boom-town status | Strong bar and nightlife demand. |
| 14 | Woodstock, ON | Growth hub | Casual dining and social eateries. |
| 15 | Lindsay, ON | Cost-driven migration | Local-first hospitality. |
| 16 | Chilliwack, BC | Less expensive than Vancouver | Breweries and modern-casual concepts. |
| 17 | Owen Sound–Meaford, ON | Lifestyle | Seasonal and local-driven experiences. |
| 18 | Peterborough, ON | Education and affordability | Bars and casual dining. |
| 19 | Sydney, NS | Cost, lifestyle | Pubs and maritime-inspired dining. |
| 20 | Sidney, BC | Vancouver Island draw | Café culture and upscale casual concepts. |
Top 15 Canadian Outbound Cities (Operator-Focused Table)
| Rank | Market (CMA) | Key Push Factors | Hospitality & Nightlife Challenges |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto, ON | Housing cost, density | Outflow of both talent and spend; mid-tier F&B softens. |
| 2 | Montréal, QC | Wages vs. cost of living | Growth slowing; nightlife remains strong but barbell-shaped. |
| 3 | Vancouver, BC | Extreme housing cost | Smaller venues under pressure; locals priced out. |
| 4 | Ottawa–Gatineau | Cost and limited housing | Restaurant scene stabilizing, slower growth. |
| 5 | Hamilton, ON | Spillover cost | Casual restaurants feel the squeeze. |
| 6 | Mississauga/Brampton | Rising costs | Suburban nightlife flattening. |
| 7 | Winnipeg, MB | Slow wage growth | Low spend-per-guest challenges. |
| 8 | London, ON | Cost pressures | Hospitality demand shifting outside city core. |
| 9 | Québec City, QC | Aging population | Limited nightlife expansion. |
| 10 | Kitchener–Waterloo | Tech slowdown | Bars and casual dining face softer demand. |
| 11 | Halifax, NS | Post-COVID cost spike | Tight labor, and slower local traffic. |
| 12 | Laval, QC | Cost, suburban stagnation | Dining segmentation increases. |
| 13 | Surrey, BC | Cost pressures | Strong immigration, but inter-provincial losses. |
| 14 | Burnaby, BC | Housing strain | Small-format restaurant pressure. |
| 15 | Richmond, BC | Cost and saturation | High competition, and tough margins. |
The Story the Data Tells
1. New Growth Engine: Alberta
Calgary and Edmonton are growing. And with that growth both cities are also redefining Canadian hospitality demand.
Younger populations, strong wages, and realistic housing costs mean:
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nightlife is expanding;
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new F&B concepts can find traction quickly; and
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talent is more readily available than in major coastal cities.
This signals, at least to me, that Alberta is on track to become Canada’s hospitality growth engine.
2. Booming: Smaller Ontario Cities
From Collingwood to Barrie to Belleville, these markets reward:
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neighborhood-first hospitality;
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experiential dining at accessible price points; and
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venues with strong community roots.
Quality-of-life migration is strengthening the hospitality scene outside of larger markets.
It’s important for operators from major markets looking at such areas to keep in mind that they can’t simply swan in and expect success. They need data to support their move, and they need to prove themselves as supportive, beneficial members of the community.
3. Major Metros: Tourism Takes the Lead
Let me be clear: Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver aren’t failing cities. They’re not about to look like locations in an I Am Legend sequel or reboot.
However, Canada’s major markets are no longer “automatic wins” for operators. That is to say, metros that were once no-brainer target markets for starting or scaling must be approached with more caution.
It’s quite likely that the secondary markets surrounding major metros are now the superior choice in many instances for restaurants and bars just starting out. They’re also likely the more logical choice for brands looking to expand (particularly those operating in major metros already).
That said, primary locations like Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver can (and should) leverage tourist traffic. Tourism is crucial to their downtowns, as is the case for essentially every destination city.
Tourists will become even more valuable to operators in major metros as locals continue to exit to more affordable, smaller cities.
However, this also highlights the importance of operators pulling every operational and guest experience thread tighter.
Support from locals remains paramount. Locals spend their money where their needs are met. They reward operators and teams for excellence, their coolness factor, goodness, and consistency.
Increasing the focus on tourists is wise; decreasing focus on locals would be foolish.
4. Risky Business: Labor and Cost Stacking
Operators are fighting:
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high rents;
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labor shortages; and
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declining local spending.
This is the combination that closes otherwise good venues.
Operators experiencing this cost stack must pursue strategic clarity, and be more intentional with every detail.
Each element of the guest experience needs review, from discovery and stepping through the doors for the first time, to the exit and follow-up. Entertain your guests like you mean it, because you do mean it.
Actual processes for hiring, onboarding, and ongoing training must be carefully considered, implemented, and non-negotiable.
Costs must be controlled, not simply cut. Discounting isn’t strategic, it’s reactive.
Key Takeaways for Canadian Operators
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Alberta and mid-sized Ontario markets look to be the near-term winners.
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Large metros require precise, high-margin, experience-forward concepts. Generic offerings are going to close doors.
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Lifestyle locales are emerging hot spots for elevated, boutique hospitality.
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Follow the talent. Staff movement is often the earliest signal of a market shift.
Before making any move into a new market, remember that data is superior to vibes. Conduct a feasibility study, create a concept plan and the other playbooks you need to make an informed decision, and then craft your business plan. Your business plan does not come first; it’s informed by the seven playbooks that precede it.
Main sources: U-Haul 2024 Growth Index (Canada) and StatsCan inter-provincial migration deficits (2023–24)
Image: Microsoft Designer

